The Fed Raised Rates: What September's Hike Means for Manatee & Sarasota Buyers and Sellers

On Wednesday, September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point. It's the Fed's first rate increase since July 2023. If you're buying, selling or investing in Manatee or Sarasota this fall, you've probably noticed mortgage quotes creeping higher, too. Here's what happened, why, and how to plan around it.

What the Fed Did

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%. The range had been 3.50%–3.75% since last December. The statement was short and direct: "Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal."

This didn't come completely out of nowhere. At the July meeting, three members dissented in favor of a hike while the majority held rates steady.

The Fed's new economic projections show a median federal funds rate of about 4.1% at the end of 2026 and again at the end of 2027. They also show PCE inflation of 3.7% for 2026. In June, officials had penciled in 3.8% for the end of this year. In plain terms, the projections leave room for another increase this year, and they don't show cuts returning quickly.

Why: Inflation Picked Back Up

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' August Consumer Price Index, released September 11, showed:

• Prices up 0.4% for the month and 3.4% over the past year

• Energy prices up 16.3% over the year, driven largely by gasoline, which was up 27.4%

• Core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2.4% over the year

Energy is doing much of the damage. But with overall inflation well above the Fed's 2% target, policymakers decided to act.

What It Means for Mortgage Rates

The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, but this week the two moved in the same direction. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed averaging 6.95% for the week of September 17, 2026. That's up from 6.76% a week earlier and the highest since late January 2025. A year ago, the average was 6.26%.

On a $400,000 loan, the difference between 6.26% and 6.95% is roughly $185 a month in principal and interest. That's real money, and it changes what some buyers qualify for.

What This Means for Buyers

• Re-check your pre-approval. If you were pre-approved this summer, ask your lender to re-run the numbers at today's rates so you know your true price range before you write an offer.

• Think about locking. If you're under contract, talk with your lender about locking your rate now and what a float-down option would cost.

• Negotiate for help with the rate. In many situations, a seller credit toward a rate buydown or closing costs can do more for your monthly payment than a small price reduction. Ask your lender to compare both.

• Look at the full payment. Insurance, taxes, and HOA or CDD fees matter as much as the rate. Get insurance quotes early. We're still in hurricane season, and insurers commonly pause new policies when a storm threatens.

What This Means for Sellers

Higher rates mean some buyers have less purchasing power, so pricing right from day one matters more than ever. In Lakewood Ranch, Bradenton, Sarasota or Parrish, here's what I'd focus on:

• Price to current conditions, using recent comparable sales, not last spring's headlines.

• Make your home easy to finance and insure. Have your roof information, wind mitigation report, permits and flood disclosure ready.

• Be open to concessions. Offering a credit toward a buyer's rate buydown can widen your buyer pool without lowering your list price.

What This Means for Investors

Higher borrowing costs squeeze cash flow, especially on small multifamily deals. Stress-test every property at a rate above today's quote, and budget conservatively for insurance and taxes. For investors with cash or low leverage, a market where some buyers step back can mean less competition and more room to negotiate.

The Bottom Line

Rate cycles come and go. What matters is whether a specific home and payment work for your goals today, with a cushion for the unexpected. I'm happy to help you run the numbers on a purchase, a sale or an investment property in Manatee or Sarasota. Call or text me at (941) 993-8311 or reach out through my contact page.

Luis Odon, REALTOR® Keller Williams Coastal Living II (941) 993-8311

This article is general information only and is not financial, legal or lending advice. Rates change daily; consult a licensed lender about your situation. Equal Housing Opportunity.

The Fed Holds, Rates Bounce and Citizens Cuts Premiums: Your Spring 2026 Market Update

Spring is usually the busiest season for real estate in Manatee and Sarasota, and 2026 started with some welcome news. Mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6% in late February. Since then they've bounced back up, and on Wednesday the Federal Reserve held rates steady. Meanwhile, Citizens Property Insurance announced rate cuts that will reach many local homeowners this summer. Here's how it all fits together for buyers, sellers and investors.

The Fed Holds Steady on March 18

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, the same level since December. The statement noted that "the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain." One member dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut.

The Fed's updated projections still show a median federal funds rate of 3.4% at the end of 2026, about one cut this year. But officials raised their median estimate for 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in December. Higher expected inflation is one reason markets aren't counting on a fast string of cuts.

Mortgage Rates: A Dip, Then a Bounce

According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey:

• The 30-year fixed averaged 5.98% for the week of February 26, 2026, the lowest since September 2022.

• By the week of March 19, it was back up to 6.22%.

• A year ago, the average was 6.67%.

So rates are higher than a few weeks ago but still well below last spring. On a $400,000 loan, the difference between 6.67% and 6.22% is roughly $120 a month in principal and interest.

What I tell buyers: Don't try to time the bottom. The 30-year average sat below 6% for just one week. If you're pre-approved and find the right home, focus on a payment you're comfortable with, and ask your lender about lock options and possible float-down features.

Citizens Insurance Rates Are Coming Down

On March 4, Citizens Property Insurance announced that regulators had approved statewide rate decreases for 2026:

• An average 8.8% decrease for homeowners multiperil policies and 5.5% for wind-only policies

• Every personal-lines policyholder gets at least a 2% decrease

• Changes take effect for new policies on July 1, 2026, and for existing policies at renewal after that

Citizens also reported its policy count had fallen to about 336,000, down 76% from 1.41 million in October 2023.

Here's what Citizens' county-by-county breakdown shows for our area:

| County | All personal lines (avg. rate change) | HO-3 homeowners (avg. rate change) | HO-3 avg. premium, current → approved | |---|---|---|---| | Manatee | −3.1% | −4.8% | $2,888 → $2,748 | | Sarasota | −5.5% | −7.4% | $3,134 → $2,901 |

Those are averages for Citizens policies only. Your premium depends on your home and coverage, and private carriers set their own rates. Still, it's another sign that Florida's insurance market is stabilizing.

What This Means for Buyers

• Get pre-approved now. Whether you're looking in Lakewood Ranch, Parrish or Sarasota, a solid pre-approval lets you act quickly when the right home appears.

• Shop insurance early. Get quotes from several carriers, and if a Citizens policy is part of the picture, ask how the July changes may apply.

• Run the full payment. Principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA or CDD fees together tell you what you can truly afford.

What This Means for Sellers

Buyers are watching rates closely. Price your home in line with current comparable sales, make it easy to insure (have your roof information and wind mitigation report ready), and consider whether a concession toward a buyer's rate buydown or closing costs could widen your buyer pool.

What This Means for Investors

Lower Citizens rates help, but remember that non-primary properties are rated differently. Get a property-specific insurance quote before you write an offer. With rates moving week to week, stress-test your cash flow at a rate a bit higher than today's.

Let's Talk About Your Spring Plans

Whether you're buying your first home, moving up, selling or adding a rental property, I'll help you sort through rates, insurance and pricing so you can make a confident decision. Call or text me at (941) 993-8311 or reach out through my contact page.

Luis Odon, REALTOR® Keller Williams Coastal Living II (941) 993-8311

This article is general information only and is not financial, insurance or legal advice. Rates and premiums vary; consult a licensed lender and insurance agent about your situation. Equal Housing Opportunity.

The Fed Cuts Again: Year-End Moves for Manatee & Sarasota Homebuyers

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third meeting in a row. With the holidays here and 2026 just around the corner, a lot of buyers in Manatee and Sarasota are asking the same thing: Should I buy now or wait? Here's what this week's decision means, plus a few year-end deadlines that could save you real money.

What the Fed Did on December 10

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.50%–3.75%. That follows cuts in September and October. The vote wasn't unanimous. One member wanted a bigger half-point cut, and two preferred to hold rates steady. That split tells you how uncertain the outlook is.

The Fed's latest economic projections show a median expectation of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026. That suggests officials, on average, expect only about one more quarter-point cut next year. Projections aren't promises, and they change with the data.

Where Mortgage Rates Stand

Remember, the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates directly. Those follow the bond market and expectations about inflation and the economy. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 6.22% for the week of December 11, 2025, down from 6.60% a year earlier.

On a $400,000 loan, a rate difference of that size works out to roughly $100 a month in principal and interest. That's meaningful, but probably not the kind of drop that makes waiting a sure bet. If you find the right home, lock a rate you can live with. If rates fall meaningfully later, refinancing may be an option, though it has costs, so talk it through with your lender.

Bigger Loan Limits for 2026

Good news for buyers in higher price ranges and for small multifamily investors: the Federal Housing Finance Agency raised conforming loan limits for 2026. The baseline limit for a one-unit home rises to $832,750, up 3.26%. According to FHFA's county-by-county list, the 2026 limits for both Manatee and Sarasota counties are:

| Units | 2026 conforming loan limit | |---|---| | 1 unit | $832,750 | | 2 units | $1,066,250 | | 3 units | $1,288,800 | | 4 units | $1,601,750 |

Loans above these amounts are "jumbo" loans, which often come with stricter requirements. If you're shopping near the old limit in Lakewood Ranch or west of the Trail in Sarasota, the higher limit may give you more room to use conventional financing. The same goes for a duplex or fourplex in Bradenton.

Year-End Homestead Deadlines

This is the one I want every buyer to know. In Florida, the homestead exemption depends on what's true on January 1.

• Own it and live in it by January 1, 2026. According to the Manatee County Property Appraiser's 2026 homestead packet, you must have permanent Florida residency as of January 1 to qualify for the 2026 tax year.

• File by March 1, 2026. Missing the deadline generally means waiving the exemption for the year. Manatee homeowners file with the Manatee County Property Appraiser. Sarasota homeowners file with the Sarasota County Property Appraiser.

• Know what it's worth. Florida's homestead exemption takes $25,000 off assessed value for all taxing authorities. It takes an additional $25,000 off assessed value between $50,000 and $75,000 for non-school taxes. Homestead also brings the Save Our Homes cap on annual assessment increases.

• Moving from another Florida homestead? If you had a Florida homestead in 2023, 2024 or 2025, you may be able to transfer part of your Save Our Homes benefit to your new home. The Florida Constitution caps that transfer at $500,000. You'll need to file form DR-501T by March 1.

If you're under contract now with a closing date in early January, talk with me and your lender about whether closing before the new year is realistic. For a primary residence, it can mean a full year of homestead savings sooner.

What This Means for Sellers

Buyers who want to close before January 1 tend to be motivated. If you're thinking about listing, a well-priced home can still attract serious attention during the holidays. And with rates lower than a year ago, more buyers can qualify than could last winter.

For Investors

Higher conforming limits for two- to four-unit properties can make small multifamily financing easier. Remember that the homestead exemption applies only to your primary residence. Rentals and second homes are taxed differently, so build realistic tax and insurance figures into your numbers.

Let's Plan Your 2026 Move

Whether you want to close before the new year or start the spring market ahead of everyone else, I'm here to help you run the numbers and plan your timing. Call or text me at (941) 993-8311 or reach out through my contact page.

Luis Odon, REALTOR® Keller Williams Coastal Living II (941) 993-8311

This article is general information only and is not tax, legal or financial advice. Confirm exemption eligibility with your county property appraiser and loan details with a licensed lender. Equal Housing Opportunity.