Data current as of October 19, 2026, 7:30 a.m. ET. Local figures are September 2026 closed sales, released Oct. 16, 2026, updating the August data in our October Market Pulse.
Key takeaways
Same median, different paths. The September single-family median was $485,000 in both counties: up 3.2% year over year in Manatee and 7.8% in Sarasota. Closed sales rose 5.4% in Sarasota (681) but fell 3.9% in Manatee (636) (RASM Manatee and Sarasota single-family summaries, Sep 2026 data, released Oct. 16, 2026).
Supply tightened, especially in Sarasota. Single-family active listings were 2,610 in Manatee (ā1.7%) and 2,629 in Sarasota (ā16.2%). Months of supply: 3.9 and 3.7, down from 4.2 and 4.8 a year ago (Manatee and Sarasota summaries, Sep 2026, released Oct. 16, 2026).
Homes moved faster. Median time to contract was 53 days in Manatee (60 a year ago) and 51 in Sarasota (64). Sellers received a median 95.7% and 94.3% of original list price, up from 93.3% and 92.2% (Manatee and Sarasota summaries, Sep 2026, released Oct. 16, 2026).
Condos are closer to balance. Condo and townhouse supply was 5.0 months in Manatee and 4.9 in Sarasota, with medians of $296,500 (unchanged) and $335,000 (+6.3%) (RASM Manatee and Sarasota condo summaries, Sep 2026 data, released Oct. 16, 2026).
Rates didn't budge. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.40% for the week of Oct. 15, unchanged from the prior week and up from 6.27% a year ago (Freddie Mac PMMS, released Oct. 15, 2026).
The bigger picture
Statewide, the September single-family median was $415,000 (+1.2%) with 4.4 months of supply (Florida Realtors, Sep 2026 data, released Oct. 16, 2026). Its chief economist, Brad O'Connor, said the market "has lost some momentum, but certainly hasn't fallen apart." Locally, new pending single-family sales slipped in both counties (ā3.6% Manatee, ā2.8% Sarasota), per the RASM Q3 2026 report, released Oct. 16, 2026.
On insurance, AM Best said Hurricane Isaias is not expected to significantly deplete Florida insurers' surplus or trigger a pricing surge (Reinsurance News, Oct. 15, 2026). The Fed meets Oct. 27ā28 (FOMC calendar). As of Oct. 15, CME FedWatch put the odds of no change at about 73% (National Mortgage News, Oct. 15, 2026).
What it means for buyers
At 7.40%, principal and interest on a $400,000 30-year loan is about $2,770 a month, roughly $300 more than at last year's 6.27% (Freddie Mac PMMS; our math; excludes taxes, insurance and HOA or CDD fees). The median sale still closes below original list, leaving room to negotiate, but with under four months of supply, well-priced homes go quickly. Get insurance quotes before you write an offer.
What it means for sellers
A home listed at $500,000 that sold at Manatee's median 95.7% of list would close near $478,500 (our math, illustration only). Pricing right on day one still matters. Our fall guide to selling at 7.40% covers prep, or get a free home value report.
What it means for investors
Cash buyers made up about 42% of Sarasota single-family closings and 28% in Manatee in September (our math from RASM counts: 287 of 681 and 180 of 636, Sep 2026). New pending condo sales rose 19.3% in Sarasota and 3.6% in Manatee (RASM Q3 report, Sep 2026 data, released Oct. 16, 2026). At 7.40%, test rents against HUD's FY2027 metro 2-bedroom benchmark of $2,188, effective Oct. 1, 2026 (HUD FY2027 FMR schedule, released Sep. 2026). Share your investment criteria.
Coming next: October local data on Mon, Nov. 16 (RASM release schedule).
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Luis Odon, REALTORĀ® Ā· Keller Williams Coastal Living II Ā· (941) 993-8311 Ā· LuisfjosRealtor@gmail.com Ā· Se habla espaƱol.
Figures are preliminary and subject to revision. County data are not neighborhood-specific. Not financial, tax, legal or insurance advice; no return is guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
