The Fed Holds, Rates Bounce and Citizens Cuts Premiums: Your Spring 2026 Market Update

Spring is usually the busiest season for real estate in Manatee and Sarasota, and 2026 started with some welcome news. Mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6% in late February. Since then they've bounced back up, and on Wednesday the Federal Reserve held rates steady. Meanwhile, Citizens Property Insurance announced rate cuts that will reach many local homeowners this summer. Here's how it all fits together for buyers, sellers and investors.

The Fed Holds Steady on March 18

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, the same level since December. The statement noted that "the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain." One member dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut.

The Fed's updated projections still show a median federal funds rate of 3.4% at the end of 2026, about one cut this year. But officials raised their median estimate for 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in December. Higher expected inflation is one reason markets aren't counting on a fast string of cuts.

Mortgage Rates: A Dip, Then a Bounce

According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey:

• The 30-year fixed averaged 5.98% for the week of February 26, 2026, the lowest since September 2022.

• By the week of March 19, it was back up to 6.22%.

• A year ago, the average was 6.67%.

So rates are higher than a few weeks ago but still well below last spring. On a $400,000 loan, the difference between 6.67% and 6.22% is roughly $120 a month in principal and interest.

What I tell buyers: Don't try to time the bottom. The 30-year average sat below 6% for just one week. If you're pre-approved and find the right home, focus on a payment you're comfortable with, and ask your lender about lock options and possible float-down features.

Citizens Insurance Rates Are Coming Down

On March 4, Citizens Property Insurance announced that regulators had approved statewide rate decreases for 2026:

• An average 8.8% decrease for homeowners multiperil policies and 5.5% for wind-only policies

• Every personal-lines policyholder gets at least a 2% decrease

• Changes take effect for new policies on July 1, 2026, and for existing policies at renewal after that

Citizens also reported its policy count had fallen to about 336,000, down 76% from 1.41 million in October 2023.

Here's what Citizens' county-by-county breakdown shows for our area:

| County | All personal lines (avg. rate change) | HO-3 homeowners (avg. rate change) | HO-3 avg. premium, current → approved | |---|---|---|---| | Manatee | −3.1% | −4.8% | $2,888 → $2,748 | | Sarasota | −5.5% | −7.4% | $3,134 → $2,901 |

Those are averages for Citizens policies only. Your premium depends on your home and coverage, and private carriers set their own rates. Still, it's another sign that Florida's insurance market is stabilizing.

What This Means for Buyers

• Get pre-approved now. Whether you're looking in Lakewood Ranch, Parrish or Sarasota, a solid pre-approval lets you act quickly when the right home appears.

• Shop insurance early. Get quotes from several carriers, and if a Citizens policy is part of the picture, ask how the July changes may apply.

• Run the full payment. Principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA or CDD fees together tell you what you can truly afford.

What This Means for Sellers

Buyers are watching rates closely. Price your home in line with current comparable sales, make it easy to insure (have your roof information and wind mitigation report ready), and consider whether a concession toward a buyer's rate buydown or closing costs could widen your buyer pool.

What This Means for Investors

Lower Citizens rates help, but remember that non-primary properties are rated differently. Get a property-specific insurance quote before you write an offer. With rates moving week to week, stress-test your cash flow at a rate a bit higher than today's.

Let's Talk About Your Spring Plans

Whether you're buying your first home, moving up, selling or adding a rental property, I'll help you sort through rates, insurance and pricing so you can make a confident decision. Call or text me at (941) 993-8311 or reach out through my contact page.

Luis Odon, REALTOR® Keller Williams Coastal Living II (941) 993-8311

This article is general information only and is not financial, insurance or legal advice. Rates and premiums vary; consult a licensed lender and insurance agent about your situation. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Hurricane Season 2025: What NOAA's Forecast and Insurance Trends Mean for Sellers and Buyers

Hurricane season officially starts June 1 and runs through November 30. After what our area went through last fall, nobody in Manatee or Sarasota needs a reminder to take it seriously. This week we also got the first official forecast for 2025, along with some encouraging news about Florida's insurance market. Here's what it all means if you're selling, buying or holding property this summer.

What NOAA Is Forecasting

On May 22, NOAA released its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Forecasters give the season a 60% chance of being above normal and expect:

• 13 to 19 named storms

• 6 to 10 hurricanes

• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger)

A seasonal outlook doesn't predict whether a storm will hit our coast, but it's a good reason to plan early. That's true whether you live here year-round or own a second home or rental.

Insurance: Some Signs of Stability

Insurance has been the biggest cost worry for many of my clients. The latest data from regulators points in a better direction:

• In April, the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation announced the 12th new property insurer to enter the market since the state's recent legislative reforms.

• The same announcement reported that homeowners insurance costs fell 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024. OIR said it had received nearly 100 residential filings requesting rate decreases or no increase. Since January 2024, 19 companies filed for decreases and 37 requested no change.

• Citizens Property Insurance has approved 2025 rate changes for new and renewal policies effective on or after June 1, 2025. For primary residences, changes range from a 10% decrease to a 14% increase depending on territory and other factors. For non-primary properties, such as second homes and many rentals, the range is 0% to a 50% increase.

None of that means every homeowner's premium is going down. Your rate still depends on your home's age, roof, construction, location and claims history. But more carriers competing is good news for buyers shopping for coverage and for sellers whose buyers need it.

If You're Selling This Summer

Gather your insurance-friendly paperwork now. Buyers' insurers will want to know about the roof, wind protection and major systems. Having these ready can speed up quotes and keep your closing on schedule:

• A current wind mitigation inspection report, which can show features that may qualify for premium discounts

• Roof permit and installation date

• Permits and invoices for any storm repairs from 2024

• Shutter or impact window documentation

Be transparent about storm history. If your home had damage or claims from Helene or Milton, disclose what you know and show how it was repaired. Buyers are asking, and good documentation builds trust.

Plan for storm-related delays. When a storm threatens, insurers commonly suspend writing new policies (often called a binding moratorium) until the threat passes. A buyer who hasn't bound coverage can't close with a lender. Talk with your agent about contract timelines that leave a little room during peak season.

Have a listing storm plan. Know who will secure the property, bring in patio furniture, put up shutters and photograph the home's condition before and after a storm, especially if you've already moved.

If You're Buying

Shop for insurance as soon as you're under contract, or even before you make an offer on a home you're serious about. Ask the seller for the wind mitigation report and roof information. On older homes, expect insurers to ask for a four-point inspection.

Bind early. Don't wait until the week before closing. If a storm forms, you could be locked out of new coverage until it passes.

Watch your rate. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 6.86% for the week of May 22, 2025. When you're budgeting, look at principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any HOA or CDD fees together.

If You Own Rentals or a Second Home

Non-primary properties can see larger Citizens increases this year, so review your renewal carefully and compare options. Check your flood coverage, too. Standard homeowners and landlord policies typically don't cover flood. Make sure tenants know your storm procedures and how to reach you.

Get Ready Now, Not When the Cone Shows Up

The best time to prepare is before a storm has a name. Update your family plan, check your insurance documents, take a video inventory of your home and know your evacuation zone through Manatee County or Sarasota County emergency management.

If you're thinking about selling, buying or reviewing a property's storm readiness this season, I'm happy to help you plan. Call or text me at (941) 993-8311 or reach out through my contact page.

Luis Odon, REALTOR® Keller Williams Coastal Living II (941) 993-8311

This article is general information only and is not insurance, legal or financial advice. Rates and coverage vary by property and carrier; consult a licensed insurance agent about your situation. Equal Housing Opportunity.